This paper aims at the production of a chronology for the EU15 business cycle by comparing parametric and non-parametric procedures on monthly and quarterly data as well in a combined approach. The main innovation is the joint use of the monthly series for the EU15 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)...

We propose a simultaneous equation system with GARCH errors to model the contemporaneous relations among Asian and American stock markets. On the estimated residuals, we evaluate the correlation matrix over rolling windows and introduce a correlation matrix distance, which allows both a...

In this paper we propose a new parametrisation of transition probabilities that allows us to characterize and test Granger-causality in Markov switching models by means of an appropriate specification of the transition matrix. Test for independence are also provided. We illustrate our...

In time series analysis, latent factors are often introduced to model the heterogeneous time evolution of the observed processes. The presence of unobserved components makes the maximum likelihood estimation method more difficult to apply. A Bayesian approach can sometimes be preferable since it...

We study the effect of financial crises on hedge fund risk. Using a regime-switching beta model, we separate systematic and idiosyncratic components of hedge fund exposure. The systematic exposure to various risk factors is conditional on market volatility conditions. We find that in the...

This paper examines four different daily datasets of hedge fund return indexes: MSCI, FTSE, Dow Jones and HFRX, all based on investable hedge funds, and three different monthly datasets of hedge fund return indexes: CSFB, CISDM and HFR which comprise both investable and non-investable hedge...

This paper presents a theoretical framework to model the evolution of a portfolio whose weights vary over time. Such a portfolio is called a dynamic portfolio. In a first step, considering a given investment policy, we define the set of the investable portfolios. Then, considering portfolio...

This article aims to investigate the phase-locking and switching volatility in the idiosyncratic risk factor of hedge funds using switching regime beta models. This approach allows the analysis of hedge fund tail event behavior and in particular the changes in hedge fund exposure to various risk...

We measure dynamic risk exposure of hedge funds to various risk factors during different market volatility conditions using the regime-switching beta model. We find that in the high-volatility regime (when the market is rolling-down) most of the strategies are negatively and significantly...

We propose a generalization of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation multivariate GARCH model of Engle (2002) and of the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation model of Cappiello et al. (2006). The model we propose introduces a block structure in parameter matrices that allows for...