We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...

A decision maker tests whether the gradient of the loss function evaluated at a judgmental decision is zero. If the test does not reject, the action is the judgmental decision. If the test rejects, the action sets the gradient equal to the boundary of the rejection region. This statistical...

Endogeneity of the labour market slack in reduced-form Phillips Curves (PCs) is usually addressed either by including proxies for omitted supply shocks, or by using instrumental variables. Using the Kiviet (2020) Kinky Least Squares estimator, we find evidence that supply-shock proxies should...

This paper extends the earlier work of Davillas and Jones (2021) on socioeconomic inequality in mental health, measured by the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ), to include the second national lockdown up to March 2021.

We use consumer surveys conducted in April, July and November 2020 to study how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the demand for cash and the use of various methods of payment. Continuing from Chen et al. (2020, 2021), we use data from the Bank Note Distribution System (BNDS) to track how the...

We study the degree of falsifiability of theories of choice. A theory is easy to falsify if relatively small datasets are enough to guarantee that the theory can be falsified: the VC dimension of a theory is the largest sample size for which the theory is ''never falsifiable.'' VC dimension is...

The aim of this study is to characterize the relationship between food consumption and socio-demographic characteristics in several groups of individuals. This is achieved by capturing the quantity of food purchased in categories on a microeconomic level. The empirical analysis is approached...

The aim of this paper is to assess the effectiveness and risk in the stock exchange market in Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEE) in view of the largest stock exchanges: NYSE2-LSE-HKSE2. The implementation of this objective was based on an analysis of basic stock market indicators and a...

Countries have employed a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in order to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the success of individual measures in reducing the number of infections remains controversial. This paper exploits a panel data set of 107 countries to estimate the...

Statistical models can help public employment services to identify factors associated with long-term unemployment and to identify at-risk groups. Such profiling models will likely become more prominent as increasing availability of big data combined with new machine learning techniques improve...