We use a range of simple models and 22 years of real-time data vintages for the U.S. to assess the difficulties of estimating the equilibrium real interest rate in real time. Model specifications differ according to whether the time-varying equilibrium real rate is linked to trend growth, and...

This paper provides new evidence on the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area, assessing the impact of an unexpected increase of the short-term interest on the lending and borrowing activity of the different economic sectors. We exploit the information content of the flow-of-funds...

During and after the Great Recession of 2008-09, conventional monetary policy in the United States and many other advanced economies was constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Several central banks implemented large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs, more...

To be useful as a guide to behavior, a model that includes a relationship between x_t and z_t+1 must specify whether x_t is influenced by the expectation at t of z_t+1 or, that z_t+1 is inertially influenced by x_t. We show that, for a broad class of linear RE models, distinct causal...

This paper examines the interactions of macroprudential and monetary policies. We find, using a range of macroeconomic models used at the European Central Bank, that in the long run, a 1% bank capital requirement increase has a small impact on GDP. In the short run, GDP declines by 0.15-0.35%....

The response of major central banks to the global financial crisis has revived the debate around the interactions between monetary policy (MP) and bank stability. This technical paper sheds light, quantitatively, on the different mechanisms underlying the relationship between MP and bank...

In response to the global COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Canada aggressively lowered its policy interest rate and provided additional easing using forward guidance and quantitative easing. In this analysis, we use simulations in the Bank of Canada's projection model-the Terms-of-Trade Economic...