We build an infinite horizon equilibrium model of fiscal federation, where anticipation of transfers from the central government creates incentives for local governments to overborrow. Absent commitment, the central government over-transfers, which distorts the central-local distribution of...

The new EU fiscal framework builds on several overlapping target measures and convergence rules. Thus, it is not clear how strict goals the framework sets for public finances. In this paper we build a simulation framework that solves the minimum fiscal effort under different assumptions on the...

In the report we analyse the reasons for the weakness of Finland’s economic performance over the past decade and assess the growth prospects in the coming 5 years. The weakness of Finland’s performance relative to comparative EU-countries since 2009 can largely be explained by the collapse...

We revisit the main building blocks of the theoretical models underlying the monetary policy consensus before the Great Recession. We highlight how the failure of these models to prevent the crisis and to provide guidance during the recession were due to the excessive confidence in the ability...

This paper is aimed at revisiting monetary analysis in order to better understand erroneous choices in the conduct of monetary policy. According to the prevailing consensus, the market economy is intrinsically stable and is upset only by poor behaviour by government or the banking system. We...

Abstract This paper analyses the short-run effects of fiscal consolidation measures on economic activity in the euro area during the euro crisis. It presents new econometric estimates on the link between cumulative GDP growth and fiscal austerity measures during 2011-2013. The main empirical...

Diese Studie befasst sich mit dem Auseinanderlaufen der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung nach der globalen Finanzkrise im Vergleich von Eurozone, USA und Großbritannien. Die Eurozone erholte sich seit 2010 deutlich schleppender als die US-amerikanische und die britische Wirtschaft. Die Rolle...

The pressures on fiscal consolidation have mounted dramatically in the wake of the Greek and then the 'contagion' crisis which followed it (across the so-called 'weakest links' Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland). It led to the setting-up of the 750 billion euro stabilisation package widely seen as...

Economic growth is one of the objectives of the current government. Fiscal policy, encompassing government expenditure and taxation decisions, can significantly impact on economic growth. This paper proposes a framework which views fiscal policy through three lenses and applies this approach to...