This paper attempts to improve the ability of farm managers and lenders to forecast expected financial performance of farm businesses using a neuro-fuzzy inference system. Ex-ante farm financial performance is examined to identify the farms that are likely to become financially stressed before...

Being able to accurately predict basis is critical for making marketing and management decisions. Basis forecasts can be used along with futures prices to provide cash price projections. Additionally, basis forecasts are needed to evaluate hedging opportunities. Many studies have examined...

Based on 20 years of yields and prices, expected annual net returns and variability of returns are measured for landlords and tenants under provisions of the 2002 Farm Bill for a representative crop rotation in North Central Kansas under alternative leasing arrangements and with conventional and...

This study evaluates agricultural forecasting accuracy in an analysis of responses to the Annual Outlook Survey conducted by the American Agricultural Economics Association from 1983 through 1995. Representative extension and composite, production, and price forecasts for several commodities are...

Five years of continuous annual data are used to measure the marginal value product of cropland (return to land) on approximately 100 Kansas farms. Determinants of the marginal value product are investigated using regression.

In 1997, the Black Vermillion Dairy Environmental Cooperative (DEC) was started with an EPA 319A grant. Ten Kansas dairies located in the Kansas Black Vermillion Watershed were studied to evaluate the on-farm manure structures cost-shared by the DEC. Net present value (NPV) analysis was used to...

Agricultural lenders in today’s environment face many challenges when evaluating the creditworthiness of farm borrowers. To address these challenges, a survey was conducted with financial institutions in Kansas and Indiana where agricultural lenders were asked for their responses to...

This study simulates whether Kansas wheat, soybean, corn, and milo producers could have profitably used deferred futures plus historical basis cash price expectations for post-harvest unhedged and hedged grain storage decisions from 1985-97. The signaled storage decision is compared to a...

Cattle feeders appear irrational when they place cattle on feed when projected profit is negative. Long futures positions appear to offer superior returns to cattle feeding investment. Cattle feeder behavior suggests that they believe a downward bias in live cattle futures persists and that...