We use macro finance models to study the interaction between macro variables and the Brazilian sovereign yield curve using daily data. We calculate the model implied default probabilities and a measure of the impact of macro shocks on the probabilities. An extension of the Dai-Singleton...

We analyze trading opportunities that arise from differences between the bond and the CDS market. By simultaneously entering a position in a CDS contract and the underlying bond, traders can build a default-risk free position that allows them to repeatedly earn the difference between the bond...

We estimate arbitrage-free term structure models of US Treasury yields and spreads on BBB and Brated corporate bonds in a doubly-stochastic intensity-based framework. A novel feature of our analysis is the inclusion of macroeconomic variables – indicators of real activity, inflation and...

Why are spreads on corporate bonds so wide relative to expected losses from default? The spread on Baa-rated bonds, for example, has been about four times the expected loss. We suggest that the most commonly cited explanations - taxes, liquidity and systematic diffusive risk - are inadequate. We...

We estimate arbitrage-free term structure models of US Treasury yields and spreads on BBB and Brated corporate bonds in a doubly-stochastic intensity-based framework. A novel feature of our analysis is the inclusion of macroeconomic variables - indicators of real activity, inflation and...

Modelling portfolio credit risk is one of the crucial challenges faced by financial services industry in the last few years. We propose the valuation model of collateralized debt obligations (CDO) based on copula functions with up to three parameters, with default intensities estimated from...

This paper combines a term structure model of credit default swaps (CDS) with weak-identification robust methods to jointly estimate the probability of default and the loss given default of the underlying firm. The model is not globally identified because it forgoes parametric time series...

This study combines the empirical estimation of a Double-Exponential Jump-Diffusion (DEJD) process for a CDS index and the use of estimated parameters to price options on the index. In the first step we find Maximum Likelihood estimates for the diffusion volatility, the Poisson jump frequencies,...

We study the co-movement of credit and equity markets in four Asia-Pacific countries at firmand index level. First, we establish realized volatility as an important determinant of CDS spreadlevels and changes. Second, we examine lead-lag relationships between CDS spreads, volatility and stock...

The purpose of the paper is twofold. First, it aims at identifying when UK and European (France, Germany, Italy and Spain) Credit Default Swaps(CDSs) exhibit explosivity with respect to their past behaviors. Second, it seeks to quantify the dynamics of CDS volatility spillover effects...