We use macro finance models to study the interaction between macro variables and the Brazilian sovereign yield curve using daily data. We calculate the model implied default probabilities and a measure of the impact of macro shocks on the probabilities. An extension of the Dai-Singleton...

We analyze trading opportunities that arise from differences between the bond and the CDS market. By simultaneously entering a position in a CDS contract and the underlying bond, traders can build a default-risk free position that allows them to repeatedly earn the difference between the bond...

Why are spreads on corporate bonds so wide relative to expected losses from default? The spread on Baa-rated bonds, for example, has been about four times the expected loss. We suggest that the most commonly cited explanations - taxes, liquidity and systematic diffusive risk - are inadequate. We...

We estimate arbitrage-free term structure models of US Treasury yields and spreads on BBB and Brated corporate bonds in a doubly-stochastic intensity-based framework. A novel feature of our analysis is the inclusion of macroeconomic variables - indicators of real activity, inflation and...

We estimate arbitrage-free term structure models of US Treasury yields and spreads on BBB and Brated corporate bonds in a doubly-stochastic intensity-based framework. A novel feature of our analysis is the inclusion of macroeconomic variables – indicators of real activity, inflation and...

This study combines the empirical estimation of a Double-Exponential Jump-Diffusion (DEJD) process for a CDS index and the use of estimated parameters to price options on the index. In the first step we find Maximum Likelihood estimates for the diffusion volatility, the Poisson jump frequencies,...

The purpose of the paper is twofold. First, it aims at identifying when UK and European (France, Germany, Italy and Spain) Credit Default Swaps(CDSs) exhibit explosivity with respect to their past behaviors. Second, it seeks to quantify the dynamics of CDS volatility spillover effects...

We study the co-movement of credit and equity markets in four Asia-Pacific countries at firmand index level. First, we establish realized volatility as an important determinant of CDS spreadlevels and changes. Second, we examine lead-lag relationships between CDS spreads, volatility and stock...

This paper analyses the role of liquidity in the price discovery process. Specifically, it focuses on the credit derivatives markets in the context of the subprime crisis. It presents a theoretical price discovery model for the ASP, bond and CDS markets and then it tests the model with data from...

The new structural model of credit risk based on a normal firm value diffusion process can infer the firm value volatility from bank credit spreads that closely agreeing with the empirically estimated firm value volatility. We use the spread-implied firm value volatility as the model volatility...