In this paper I study the relationship between rationality and asset prices when agents have heterogeneous and incorrect beliefs about future events. Using the fully rational pricing as a benchmark, I show that when agents behave according to the Subjective Generalized Kelly rule (Bottazzi et...

Since Kahneman and Tversky (1979), it has been generally recognized that decision makers overweight low probabilities and underweight high probabilities. Of the several weighting functions that have been proposed, that of Prelec (1998) has the attractions that it is parsimonious, consistent with...

This work provides an axiomatic framework to the concept of conditional preference orders based on conditional sets. Conditional numerical representations of such preference orders are introduced and a conditional version of the theorems of Debreu about the existence of such numerical...

Risk-based investment solutions are seen as incorporating no views. In this article, we propose an analytical framework that allows the introduction of explicit active views on expected asset returns in risk-based solutions. Starting from a Black-Litterman approach, we derive closed-form...

I provide three comparative statics involving the level of demand uncertainty for the newsvendor model, two of which lead to robust predictions. I show that for distributions of demand that are greater in the dispersive order, both the expected (censored) sales and share of inventory sold fall....

This paper axiomatizes static and dynamic quantile preferences. Static quantile preferences specify that a prospect should be preferred if it has a higher τ-quantile, for some τ ∈ (0,1), while its dynamic counterpart extends this to take into account a sequence of decisions and information...

Climate change is predicted to substantially alter forest growth. Optimally, forest owners should take these future changes into account when making rotation decisions today. However, the fundamental uncertainty surrounding climate change makes predicting these shifts hard. Hence, this paper...

Stochastic independence (SI) has a complex status in probability theory. It is not part of the definition of a probability measure, but it is nonetheless an essential property for the mathematical development of this theory, hence a property that any theory on the foundations of probability...

This paper shows how de Finetti's book-making principle, commonly used to justify additive subjective probabilities, can be modified to agree with some nonexpected utility models. More precisely, a new foundation of the rank-dependent models is presented that is based on a comonotonic extension...

Among the most popular models for decision under risk and uncertainty are the rank-dependent models, introduced by Quiggin and Schmeidler. Central concepts in these models are rank-dependence and comonotonicity. It has been suggested in the literature that these concepts are technical tools that...