Evidence shows that (i) people overweight low probabilities and underweight high probabilities, but (ii) ignore events of extremely low probability and treat extremely high probability events as certain. Decision models, such as rank dependent utility (RDU) and cumulative prospect theory (CP),...

This paper estimates the probability distribution of budgets, revenues, returns and profits to G-, PG-, PG13-, and R-rated movies. The distributions are non-Gaussian and show a self-similar stable Paretian form with non-finite variance and non-stationary mean.

A discrete symmetry of a preference relation is a mapping from the domain of choice to itself under which preference comparisons are invariant; a continuous symmetry is a one-parameter family of such transformations that includes the identity; and a symmetry field is a vector field whose...

This paper formulates the classic Monty Hall problem as a Bayesian game. Allowing Monty a small amount of freedom in his decisions facilitates a variety of solutions. The solution concept used is the Bayes Nash Equilibrium (BNE), and the set of BNE relies on Monty's motives and incentives. We...

We develop a nonparametric procedure, called the lattice method, for testing the consistency of contingent consumption data with a broad class of models of choice under risk and under uncertainty. Our method allows for risk loving and elation seeking behavior and can be used to calculate, via...

In this paper, we introduce cost benefit rules for projects embedded in a stochastic optimal growth framework. We model uncertainty in terms of Brownian motion and Ito integrals. Taking the mathematical expectation of the project means that the Ito integrals vanish, and we end up with a cost...

We study attitudes towards risk in the Rank Dependent Expected Utility (RDEU) model. This model replaces expected utility by another functional, which is characterised by two functions, a utility function on outcomes in conjunction with a probability-perception function. We use the notion of...

Normative models of behaviour under risk in the framework of expected utility (EU) or under uncertainty in the framework of subjective expected utility (SEU) are very limited. In this survey paper, it is shown that non-expected utility (non-EU) models based on the Choquet integral allow for much...

Cosimano (2003) uses the perturbation method to approximate optimal experimentation problems in the neighborhood of the augmented linear regulator problem as formulated by Hansen and Sargent (2004) and Anderson, Hansen, McGratten and Sargent (1966). Cosimano and Gapen (2005) develop a computer...