This paper is concerned with the issues that arise in building a small Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Australian economy. Our ultimate objective is to build a model that can be used to study long run economic growth and the business cycle. We agree with Cooley and...

Economic events such as expansions and recessions in economic activity, bull and bear markets in stock prices and financial crises have long attracted substantial interest. In recent times there has been a focus upon predicting the events and constructing Early Warning Systems of them....

The R word has begun to appear in the media again bringing with it three technical questions viz, How will we know we are in recession? How will we know when it has ended? And How can we forecast its onset and ending? This paper does not provide answers to these questions rather it focuses on...

Experience from the United Kingdom and the United States suggests that expert evidence is often reshaped and repackaged by governments so that it supports existing policy rather than informing policy decisions. The Australian government based its decision to introduce FuelWatch on evidence in...

The fact that the Global Financial Crisis, and the Great Recession it ushered in, was largely unforeseen, has led to the common opinion that macroeconomic models and analysis is deficient in some way. Of course it has probably always been true that businessmen, journalists and politicians have...

To match the NBER business cycle features it is necessary to employ Generalised dynamic categorical (GDC) models that impose certain phase restrictions and permit multiple indexes. Theory suggests additional shape restrictions in the form of monotonicity and boundedness of certain transition...

To match the NBER business cycle features it is necessary to employ Generalised dynamic categorical (GDC) models that impose certain phase restrictions and permit multiple indexes. Theory suggests additional shape restrictions in the form of monotonicity and boundedness of certain transition...