Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.

Remarks at the at the Society of American Business Editors and Writers Fall Conference, City University of New York, Graduate School of Journalism, New York City.

We propose a simple saving-based measure of the cyclical component in GDP. The measure is motivated by the prediction that the representative consumer changes savings in response to temporary deviations of income from its stochastic trend, while satisfying a present-value budget constraint. To...

The financial intermediary is shown to result from a market imperfection related to the costly monitoring of the actions of consumers. In such an environment complete insurance is not obtainable and consumers respond by holding some of their wealth as precautionary balances in order to...

Most households persistently invest in riskless assets but not stocks, and may do so because they perceive the information required for market participation to be costly relative to expected benefits. In a CCAPM, increased risk aversion, income risk, and lower resources reduce the information...

In the last decade, households have tended to shift out of bank deposits and money market funds and into stocks and bonds. Some analysts and journalists worry that the shift could be destabilizing to the economy and financial markets. Consumption spending, it is argued, might fluctuate more...