Hall and Nobel (1987) use the Granger-causality test to show that volatility influences velocity, leading them to conclude that the recent decline in the velocity of Ml is due to increased volatility of money growth which is alleged to be caused by the Federal Reserve's new operating procedures....

Using real time estimates of output gaps or Greenbook forecasts of the unemployment rate, this article estimates Taylor-type policy rules that predict the actual behavior of the funds rate during two sample periods, 1968Q1 to 1979Q2 and 1979Q3 to 1994Q4. The inflation rate response coefficient...

Shocks to the macroeconomy can affect the public's expectations about inflation. But if the Federal Reserve monitors those expectations carefully and vigilantly pursues price stability, it can establish credibility and keep inflation in check.

Recent research has emphasized that the Federal Reserve under Chairman Alan Greenspan was forward looking, smoothed interest rates, and focused on core inflation. The semiannual monetary policy reports to U.S. Congress indicate that the measure of inflation used in monetary policy deliberations...

What caused the observed shift of M1 demand in the 1980s? Rival candidate explanations stress (1) M1 growth volatility, (2) disinflation, (3) rising real value of stocks, (4) rising volume of financial transactions, (5) rising household financial wealth, and (6) introduction into M1 of...

Market participants recognize two opposing effects of money supply growth on interest rates: a temporary liquidity effect and a permanent expectations effect. That the latter dominates in the long run is clear—a sustained increase in money growth causes proportionally higher interest rates due...