In the absence of HIV testing, how do rural Malawians assess their HIV status? In this paper, we use a unique dataset that includes respondents’ HIV status as well as their subjective likelihood of HIV infection. These data show that many rural Malawians overestimate their likelihood of...

Objective: We studied child survival in Rakai, Uganda where many children are fostered out or orphaned. Methods: Biological relatedness is measured as the average of the Wright’s coefficients between each household member and the child. Instrumental variables for fostering include...

Almost all commonly used indirect fertility estimation methods rely on the P/F ratio. As originally conceived, the ratio compares cumulated cohort fertility with cumulated period fertility on the basis of three, fairly strong, assumptions. The intention of this paper is to interrogate what...

We estimate age-specific HIV incidence and prevalence in Tanzania and Uganda in the late 1990s and forecast forward assuming no change in incidence. Comparisons between our forecasts of HIV prevalence and direct measures from the HIV/AIDS Indicator and Demographic and Health Surveys in the...

This article presents an extension of the cohort component model of population projection (CCMPP) first formulated by Heuveline that is capable of modeling a population affected by HIV. We extend this work by developing the Leslie matrix representation of the CCMPP that greatly facilitates...

In this paper, we present a framework for considering whether the marginal social benefits of demographic and social science research on various health conditions in developing countries are likely to be relatively high. Based on this framework, we argue that the relative current and future...