Housing price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios are among the most widely monitored indicators of housing market conditions. While these ratios tend to fluctuate around a constant level or a mild trend over the long term, they also tend to deviate from these benchmarks for protracted periods....

This paper examines the housing-output growth nexus in South Africa by accounting for the time variation in the causal link with a bootstrapped rolling Granger non-causality test. We use quarterly data on real gross domestic product, real house prices, real gross fixed capital formation and...

We employ a 10-variable dynamic structural general equilibrium model to forecast the US real house price index as well as its turning point in 2006:Q2. We also examine various Bayesian and classical time-series models in our forecasting exercise to compare to the dynamic stochastic general...

This paper develops a Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) for forecasting inventory investment. The model is estimated using South African quarterly data on actual sales, production, unfilled orders, price level and interest rate, for the period 1978 to 2000. The...

Using an overlapping generations production-economy model characterized by financial repression, purposeful government expenditures and cost of tax collection, we analyse whether financial repression can be explained by the cost of raising taxes. We show that with public expenditures affecting...

This paper develops a New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model for forecasting the growth rate of output, inflation, and the nominal short-term interest rate (91 days Treasury Bill rate) for the South African economy. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood...

The paper develops a monetary endogenous growth model of a financially repressed small open economy, characterized by curb markets, capital mobility, transaction costs in domestic and foreign capital markets, and a flexible exchange rate system, to analyze the impact of financial liberalization...

Purpose – This paper aims at developing a theoretical model of a world economy characterized by tax evasion. It seeks to analyze whether financial repression can be explained by tax evasion. Design/methodology/approach – The analysis is performed in overlapping generations dynamic general...

Purpose – This paper aims to develops an estimable hybrid model that combines the micro‐founded DSGE model with the flexibility of the atheoretical VAR model. Design/methodology/approach – The model is estimated via the maximum likelihood technique based on quarterly data on real gross...