Cet article analyse le comportement cyclique du cours du Dow Jones et notamment ses propriétés de mémoire longue à travers une nouvelle classe de modèles ARFIMA semiparamétriques avec erreurs GARCH hyperboliques, notée SEMIFARMA-HYGARCH ; cette classe inclut une tendance déterministe non...

[fre] Prévision bayésienne et structure par terme des taux d'intérêt. . Cet article s'efforce d'approcher de manière originale les anticipations des agents concernant le taux long futur et sa volatilité, variables clés dans l'équation de détermination du taux long issue de la théorie...

In this paper, we address the problem of the role of the distance between trading partners by assuming the variability of coefficients in a standard gravity model. The distance can be interpreted as an indicator of the cost of entry in a market (a fixed cost): the greater the distance, the...

The recent empirical literature supports the view that most of the international stock prices are not pairwise cointegrated. However, by using fractional cointegration techniques, this paper shows that France, Germany, Hong Kong, and Japan stock prices indices are pairwise fractionally...

This paper presents a 2-regime SETAR model with different long-memory processes in both regimes. We briefly present the memory properties of this model and propose an estimation method. Such a process is applied to the absolute and squared returns of five stock indices. A comparison with simple...

This paper examines the time series behavior of monthly bilateral real exchange rates (RER) on a comprehensive sample of 78 industrialized and developing countries, using the U.S. Dollar, the UK Pound and the German Deutsche Mark as numeraires. We suggest a three-step testing procedure based on...

In this paper, we address the problem of the role of the distance between trading partners by assuming the variability of coefficients in a standard gravity model. The distance can be interpreted as an indicator of the cost of entry in a market (a fixed cost): the greater the distance, the...