Most people accept that structural and labour market reforms are needed in Europe. However few have been undertaken. The usual conjecture is that reforms are costly in economic performance and costly to finance. Blanchard and Giavazzi (2003) and Spector (2004) develop a general equilibrium model...

This article highlights the importance of debt-related fiscal rules and derives growth-maximizing public debt ratios from a simple theoretical model. On the basis of evidence on the productivity of public capital, we estimate public debt targets that governments should maintain if they wish to...

This paper analyzes the stability of foreign trade, currency markets and international portfolio balances with the help of a model which captures the interactions between current account balances and the international asset portfolios for domestic and foreign investors. The model is used for...

The use of real-time cash data allows us to make accurate intra-annual forecasts of an economy’s fiscal position, and to issue early warning signals for the need to correct fiscal imbalances. This paper shows how those signals can be used to design the necessary fiscal corrections, and...

Early work on the theory of economic policy stressed the importance of accounting for the interactions between fiscal and monetary policy. Tinbergen, and Cooper, taught us that there would be costs in missed targets, instability, and protracted imbalances if this was not done. Yet most models we...

There is a general consensus that monetary stability in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) requires sustainable public finances of the member states. But how can a sufficient degree of budgetary discipline be maintained in Stage three of EMU?To answer this question, this study provides an...

This paper tests the hypothesis that the links and leadership/dependency relationships between the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the United States (US), and the other large Asian economies have changed over the past 20 years with the industrialization of the PRC economy. We use...