This article describes a methodology for evaluating R&D investment projects using Monte Carlomethods. R&D projects generally involves multiple phases with or without overlapping. R&D investments are made often in a phased manner, with the commencement of subsequent phase being dependent on the...

This paper provides a real option methodology in order to value a pioneer’s R&D investment opportunity allowing for more potential competitors to enter in the market. To incorporate this competitive dimension, we assume that the pioneer may lose the “competitive dividends”   if the real...

This paper provides a real option methodology for evaluating R&D investment opportunities assuming that potential competitors can en- ter in the market. As it is well known, R&D investments are made often in a phased manner and so each stage creates an opportunity (option) for subsequent...

This paper deals with nonparametric inference for second order stochastic dominance of two random variables. If their distribution functions are unknown they have to be inferred from observed realizations. Thus, any results on stochastic dominance are in uenced by sampling errors. We establish...

The diffusion of innovations is an important process and its models have applications in many fields, with particular relevance in technological forecast. The logistic equation is one of most important models in this context. Extensions of this approach as the Lotka-Volterra model have been...

Multivariate GARCH models are in principle able to accommodate the features of the dynamic conditional correlations processes, although with the drawback, when the number of financial returns series considered increases, that the parameterizations entail too many parameters.In general, the...

We revisit the question whether U.S. fiscal policy in the pre-Volcker period was active or passive. To determine the policy stance, we estimate a DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions employing a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (SMC) for posterior evaluation. In contrast to...

The size and power of the Wald, Edgeworth expansion corrected likelihood-ratio statistic (LRE), and bootstrap tests for Granger causality in integrated-cointegrated VAR systems are considered. By using Monte Carlo methods and simple graphical techniques, the p-value plots, and power-size plots,...

Abstract only: Today’s data analysts and modellers are in the luxurious position of being able to more closely describe, estimate, predict and infer about complex systems of interest, thanks to ever more powerful computational methods but also wider ranges of modelling distributions. Mixture...