Spanish Abstract: Este trabajo pretende aportar evidencia sobre cómo se forman las expectativas inflacionarias y en qué medida la gente aprende de su experiencia. En otras palabras, sobre cuál es la relación entre los supuestos estándar de la teoría económica y la formación de las...

The paper proposes an approach to evaluate hypotheses about transition dynamics when only the distributions at two points in time are observed. Using the principle of statistical mechanics, we show how to adjust in the most probable way a hypothesis so that it becomes compatible with the...

The paper proposes an approach to evaluate hypotheses about transition dynamics when only the distributions at two points in time are observed. Using principles of statistical mechanics, we show how to adjust in the "most probable" way a hypothesis such that it becomes compatible with the...

The paper proposes an approach to evaluate hypotheses about transition dynamics when only the distributions at two points in time are observed. Using the principle of statistical mechanics, we show how to adjust in the "most probable" way a hypothesis so that it becomes compatible with the...

We study two tests for the equality of two population mean vectors under high dimensionality and column-wise dependence by thresholding. They are designed for better power performance when the mean vectors of two populations differ only in sparsely populated coordinates. The first test is...

We define tail interdependence as a situation where extreme outcomes for some variables are informative about such outcomes for other variables. We extend the concept of multiinformation to quantify tail interdependence, decompose it into systemic and residual interdependence and measure the...

We define tail interdependence as a situation where extreme outcomes for some variables are informative about such outcomes for other variables. We extend the concept of multiinformation to quantify tail interdependence, decompose it into systemic and residual interdependence and measure the...

Testing the validity of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts, or backtesting, is an integral part of modern market risk management and regulation. This is often done by applying independence and coverage tests developed in Christoffersen (1998) to so-called hit-sequences derived from VaR forecasts and...