This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...

I estimate DSGE models with recurring regime changes in monetary policy (inflation target and reaction coefficients), technology (growth rate and volatility), and/or nominal price rigidities. In the models, agents are assumed to know deep parameter values but make probabilistic inference...

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markov switching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...

We propose a new VAR identification scheme that distinguishes shifts of and movements along the labor demand schedule to identify labor-supply shocks. According to our VAR analysis of post-war U.S. data, labor-supply shifts account for about 30 percent of the variation in hours and about 15...

In a recent paper, Chang et al. [2002. Learning-by-doing as a propagation mechanism. American Economic Review 92 (5) 1498-1520] extend the standard real business cycle (RBC) model to allow for a learning-by-doing (LBD) mechanism whereby current labor supply affects future productivity. They show...

We investigate the role of labor-supply shifts in economic fluctuations. A new VAR identification scheme for labor supply shocks is proposed. Our method provides an alternative identification scheme, which does not rely on quot;zero-restrictionsquot;. According to our VAR analysis of post-war...

This paper suggests that skill accumulation through past work experience, or "learning-by-doing", can provide an important propagation mechanism for initial shocks, as the current labor supply affects future productivity. Our econometric analysis uses a Bayesian approach to combine micro-level...

In a recent paper, Chang, Gomes, and Schorfheide (2002) extend the standard real business cycle (RBC) model to allow for a learning-by-doing (LBD) mechanism whereby current labour supply affects future productivity. They show that this feature magnifies the propagation of shocks and improves the...

In a recent paper, Chang, Gomes, and Schorfheide (2002) extend the standard real business cycle (RBC) model to allow for a learning-by-doing (LBD) mechanism whereby current labour supply affects future productivity. They show that this feature magnifies the propagation of shocks and improves the...

We investigate the role of labor-supply shifts in economic fluctuations. A new VAR identification scheme for labor supply shocks is proposed. According to our VAR analysis of post-war U.S. data, labor-supply shifts account for about half the variation in hours and one-fifth of variation in...