In recent times DSGE models came more and more into the focus of forecasters and showed promising forecast performances for the short term. We contribute to the existing literature by analyzing the forecast power of a DSGE model including endogenous growth for the medium run. Instead of only...

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markov switching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...

This Paper suggests that skill accumulation through past work experience, or ‘learning-by-doing’ (LBD), can provide an important propagation mechanism in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, as the current labour supply affects future productivity. Our econometric analysis uses a...

In a recent paper, Chang, Gomes, and Schorfheide (2002) extend the standard real business cycle (RBC) model to allow for a learning-by-doing (LBD) mechanism whereby current labour supply affects future productivity. They show that this feature magnifies the propagation of shocks and improves the...

We investigate the role of labor-supply shifts in economic fluctuations. A new VAR identification scheme for labor supply shocks is proposed. According to our VAR analysis of post-war U.S. data, labor-supply shifts account for about half the variation in hours and one-fifth of variation in...

The hypothesis of intertemporal substitution in labour supply has a history of empirical failure when confronted with aggregate time-series data. The authors show that a two-dimensional labour supply model, adapted to an environment with money as originally proposed by Lucas and Rapping (1969)...

In a recent paper, Chang, Gomes, and Schorfheide (2002) extend the standard real business cycle (RBC) model to allow for a learning-by-doing (LBD) mechanism whereby current labour supply affects future productivity. They show that this feature magnifies the propagation of shocks and improves the...

We investigate the role of labor-supply shifts in economic fluctuations. A new VAR identification scheme for labor supply shocks is proposed. Our method provides an alternative identification scheme, which does not rely on quot;zero-restrictionsquot;. According to our VAR analysis of post-war...

In a recent paper, Chang et al. [2002. Learning-by-doing as a propagation mechanism. American Economic Review 92 (5) 1498-1520] extend the standard real business cycle (RBC) model to allow for a learning-by-doing (LBD) mechanism whereby current labor supply affects future productivity. They show...