This Paper considers the problems facing decision-makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that researchers face in construction of automated...

This article considers the consequences of explicitly allowing for stochastic technological progress and stochastic labor input in the discrete-time Solow-Swan and AK growth models. It shows that the capital-output ratio, but not output per capita, is ergodic irrespective of whether there is a...

This Paper develops a theoretical framework for the analysis of small sample properties of forecasts from general autoregressive models under structural breaks. Finite-sample results for the mean-squared forecast error of one-step-ahead forecasts are derived, both conditionally and...

The authors consider the solution of multivariate linear rational expectations models in the presence of heterogeneous information and social interactions. To overcome the 'infinite regress in expectations' problem that arises in the solution of these models, we assume that agents' expectations...

This paper focuses on whether to use macro or micro equations to predict aggregate variables. The Grunfeld-Griliches prediction criterion is generalized to allow for contemporaneous covariances across the micro equations and for parametric restrictions on the disaggregate equations. An...