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Governments and central banks need to have an accurate and timely assessment of indicators for the current month, as this is essential for providing a reliable and early analysis of the current economic situation. The index of industrial production (IIP) is probably the most important and widely...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010588231
computationally simple and can be easily implemented as a nowcasting tool. Finally, this method also allows to retrace the driving …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010600888
In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a wide selection of individual models within each model class are combined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009366339
In this paper a Bayesian vector autoregressive model for nowcasting the seasonally non-adjusted unemployment rate in EU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037615
We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy based on an appropriately selected set of indicators. The resulting business cycle factor is in striking accordance with historical Swiss business cycle fluctuations. Our proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011853245
Common sense tells that historical data are more informative for the estimation of today's nowcasting models when … procedure of GDP nowcasting models, in which observations are weighted based on the similarity with the current economic state … significant nowcasting gains for predicting GDP growth in Belgium as compared to traditional unweighted approaches. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014550264
We produce predictions of the current state of the Indonesian economy by estimating a Dynamic Factor Model on a dataset of 11 indicators (also followed closely by market operators) over the time period 2002 to 2014. Besides the standard difficulties associated with constructing timely indicators...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011432892
sentiment in the dynamic factor model for nowcasting consumer confidence. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012606470
-noise dynamic factor models, commonly used in macroeconomic forecasting and nowcasting. We show analytically and in Monte Carlo … estimation accuracy. Modestly increasing the noise level also accelerates convergence. A nowcasting exercise of euro area GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014321791
investment, which are available at a quarterly frequency. While nowcasting uses data up to (and including) the quarter to be … that taking explicit account of regimes clearly improves nowcasting, and different regimes are important for GDP … certain regimes, like tourist arrivals in the non-recession regime when nowcasting consumption, while other variables are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436331