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-noise dynamic factor models, commonly used in macroeconomic forecasting and nowcasting. We show analytically and in Monte Carlo … estimation accuracy. Modestly increasing the noise level also accelerates convergence. A nowcasting exercise of euro area GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014321791
investment, which are available at a quarterly frequency. While nowcasting uses data up to (and including) the quarter to be … that taking explicit account of regimes clearly improves nowcasting, and different regimes are important for GDP … certain regimes, like tourist arrivals in the non-recession regime when nowcasting consumption, while other variables are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436331
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491332
Mixed frequency Bayesian vector autoregressions (MF-BVARs) allow forecasters to incorporate a large number of mixed frequency indicators into forecasts of economic activity. This paper evaluates the forecast performance of MF-BVARs relative to surveys of professional forecasters and investigates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011776834
indicators are used to nowcast each expenditure component of GDP. The nowcasting framework is found to be a valuable tool in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012144187
2018. The DFM methodology offers a powerful and tractable means of nowcasting economic growth while accounting for mixed … content for GDP growth in India, a novel result from the viewpoint of the existing nowcasting literature. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012429374
monthly indicators in nowcasting GDP growth. These insights should help improve recently developed high-frequency indicators. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012514728
Most macroeconomic indicators failed to capture the sharp economic fluctuations during the Corona crisis in a timely manner. Instead, alternative high-frequency data have been used, aiming to monitor the economic situation. However, these data are often only loosely related to the business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012546043
Mixed frequency Bayesian vector autoregressions (MF-BVARs) allow forecasters to incorporate a large number of mixed frequency indicators into forecasts of economic activity. This paper evaluates the forecast performance of MF-BVARs relative to surveys of professional forecasters and investigates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011485951
We produce predictions of the current state of the Indonesian economy by estimating a Dynamic Factor Model on a dataset of 11 indicators (also followed closely by market operators) over the time period 2002 to 2014. Besides the standard difficulties associated with constructing timely indicators...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011404639