This paper studies the causal effect of individuals' overconfidence and bounded rationality on asset markets. To do that, we combine a new market mechanism with an experimental design, where (1) players' interaction is centered on the inferences they make about each others' information, (2)...

The theory of moral hazard predicts that since the activities of managers are hard to monitor directly, managerial compensation is tied to the profitability of the firms they manage. In this empirical study we investigate the hypothesis that the secular trends in managerial compensation can be...

We develop and analyze a model of a multi-stage investment project that captures many features of R\&D ventures and start-up companies. An important feature these problems share is that the firm learns about the potential profitability of the project t

This paper presents a prototype model for development of the “fiscal theory of the price level.” In this simple setting, the fiscal theory’s distinctiveness relies upon adoption of a bubble solution, rather than the rational-expectations fundamentals solution. The paper then shows that the...

Evidence suggests that long-term EPS growth forecasts of financial analysts are by and large optimistic. In particular, we test whether the Availability Heuristic (Tversky and Kahneman 1973) is descriptive of analysts’ forecasting behavior, and whether this heuristic can help explain the...