Does capital markets uncertainty act the business cycle? We nd that financial volatility predicts 30% of post-war economic activity in the United States, and that during the Great Moderation, aggregate stock market volatility explains, alone, up to 55% of real growth. In out of-sample tests, we...

Aim of this article is to judge the empirical performance of Arch as diffusion approximations to models of the short-term rate with stochastic volatility and as filters of the unobserved volatility. We show that the estimation of the continuous time scheme to which a discrete time Arch model...

In a market with informationally connected traders, the dynamics of volume, price informativeness, price-volatility, and price-impacts are severely affected by the number of information linkages every trader experiences with his neighbors. We show that in the presence of information linkages...

Which pricing kernel restrictions are needed to make low dimensional Markov models consistent with given sets of predictions on aggregate stock-market fluctuations? This paper develops theoretical test conditions addressing this and related reverse engineering issues arising within a fairly...