We build and estimate a structural dynamic general equilibrium model of growth and trade. Trade affects growth through changes in consumer and producer prices that in turn stimulate or impede physical capital accumulation. At the same time, growth affects trade, directly through changes in...

A structural gravity model is used to estimate barriers to services trade across many sectors, countries and time. Since the disaggregated output data needed to flexibly infer border barriers are often missing for services, we derive a novel methodology for projecting output data. The empirical...

We develop a simple estimation procedure for general equilibrium (GE) comparative static analysis of gravity models. Non-linear solvers of estimated models are replaced by (constrained) regressions. Applied economists can more readily generate results, with more intuition about the working of...

Market exchange is subject to an endogenously-determined level of predation which impedes specialization and gains from trade. Utility-maximizing agents opt between careers in specialized production and careers in predation. Three types of equilibria may emerge, autarky (with no predation and no...

We show that the effects of tariff changes on welfare and import volume are fully characterised by their effects on the generalised mean and variance of the tariff distribution, implying two “cones of liberalisation” in commodity price space. Because welfare is negatively but import volume...

We introduce an index of trade policy restrictiveness defined as the uniform tariff that maintains the same trade volume as a given tariff/quota structure. Our index overcomes the problems of the trade-weighted average tariff: It avoids substitution bias, correctly accounts for general...

We propose a short-run theory of the extensive margins of trade, comprising the standard international extensive margin and a novel domestic extensive margin. The domestic extensive margin allows identification of globalization and specific policy effects not properly identified in previous...

We propose a simple and flexible reduced-form econometric approach to estimate gravity models in the short and the long run. The theoretical lens for interpreting our methods amends the canonical Lucas-Prescott adjustment formulation to allow for time-interval-varying...

Short run gravity is a geometric weighted average of long run gravity and bilateral capacity. The model features (i) joint trade costs endogenous to bilateral volumes, (ii) long run gravity as a limiting case of effcient investment in bilateral capacities, (iii) a structural ratio of short run...