Assessing the state of the economy in real time is critical for policy-making, and understanding the risks to those assessments is equally important. Policy-makers are typically provided with point forecasts that contain insufficient information about risks. In contrast, predictive densities...

The concept of settlement balances is simple in its definition but complex when attempting to understand how they interplay between a central bank and the financial system. Settlement balances can be defined as interest-bearing deposits that belong to participants of Canada's payment system and...

This study describes the Chinese growth model over the past 40 years. We show that China's growth model, with its dominant role of the banking system and "the banker", is a perfect illustration of the necessity and power of Schumpeter's "monetary analysis". This approach has allowed us to...

This paper develops tools to examine selected major issues in the Indian economy. The study computes the potential growth rate of the economy and the agricultural sector, extends the analysis of the fiscal stimulus and its effects, and estimates the short and long run elasticities of India's...

The recent revival of Hyman P. Minsky's ideas among policymakers, economists, bankers, financial institutions, and the mass media, synchronized with the increasing gravity of the subprime financial crisis, demands a reappraisal of the meaning and scope of the 'financial instability hypothesis'...

1000 Mrd. Euro sind eine große Summe. Es ist daher verständlich, dass ein deutscher Target- Saldo in dieser Größe mediale Aufmerksamkeit erhält. Aber zeigt die große Summe auch ein großes Problem an? Hier gehen die Meinungen weit auseinander. Manche sprechen von Hysteriea und einem...

Mit dem Wachstumsbeschleunigungsgesetz vom Dezember 2009 ist ein drittes Maßnahmenpaket in die Wege geleitet worden, mit dessen Hilfe die Folgen des Wirtschaftseinbruchs im Jahr 2009 abgefedert bzw. diesen entgegen gewirkt werden sollte. Die darin enthaltenen steuerlichen Sofortmaßnahmen...

The recent revival of Hyman P. Minsky’s ideas among policymakers, economists, bankers, financial institutions, and the mass media, synchronized with the increasing gravity of the subprime financial crisis, demands a reappraisal of the meaning and scope of the “financial instability...

We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best...

This paper investigates the relationship between interest rate and volatility of real effective exchange rate in Brazil. Through a simultaneous multivariate GARCH model, which allows estimating equations for the mean and variance in a single stage, it was observed that: it’s not possible to...