This paper focuses on the asymptotic single-risk-factor (ASRF) model in order to analyze the impact of specification and calibration errors on popular measures of portfolio credit risk. Violations of key assumptions of this model are found to be virtually inconsequential, especially for large,...

This article compares the linkages between credit fundamentals, ratings and value-at-risk measures for CDO tranches with those for corporate bond exposures. A sensitivity analysis incorporating market information and rating migrations data reveals that the behaviour of CDO tranche ratings can...

Over the past decade, many emerging markets have increased their dependence on credit from foreign banks. However, the ongoing financial crisis may prompt banks to reassess their exposures to these economies. Panel regression analysis of data since the early 1990s indicates that a deterioration...

A model-based assessment of credit risk is subject to both specification and calibration errors. Focusing on a well known credit risk model, we propose a methodology for quantifying the relative importance of alternative sources of such errors and apply this methodology to a large data set. We...

Structural credit risk models account for the average level of default rates within rating categories only when calibrated on a firm by firm basis. Nevertheless, firm-specific information matters little when one is interested in forecasting the path of default rates over time. This is because...

The structure of the international banking market has evolved in important ways since the introduction of the euro in 1999. In comparison to legacy currencies, the use of the euro in cross-border banking transactions grew on aggregate, and the bilateral linkages within the euro area became more...

Activity in the international banking market has grown in recent years, both in absolute terms and relative to aggregate measures of economic activity and liquidity. By establishing a global outreach, several international banking centres have become key players in this market. This feature...

Why should risk management systems account for parameter uncertainty? In order to answer this question, this paper lets an investor in a credit portfolio face non-diversifiable estimation-driven uncertainty about two parameters: probability of default and asset-return correlation. Bayesian...

We propose a method for measuring the systemic importance of interconnected banks. In order to capture contributions to system-wide risk, our measure accounts fully for the extent to which a bank (i) propagates shocks across the system and (ii) is vulnerable to propagated shocks. An empirical...