We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Are real or nominal oil prices predictable...

Active labor market policies are commonly used tool to fight unemployment. In the early 1960s all Scandinavian countires have introduced several different measures to have an effect on their labor markets. In the late 1970s in most developed countries of OECD government expenditures on those...

This study uses contingent valuation (CV) methods to estimate the benefit of an environmental water quality project of the Tietê River and its tributaries that flow through the São Paulo, Brazil, Metropolitan Area (SPMA). This paper demonstrates the range alternative central tendency measures...

Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the...

Comparative analysis of economic structure and forecasts generated from simultaneous equation, VAR and autoregressive models based on quarterly series from 1966:1 to 2007:3 of UK to those from the stochastic general equilibrium models has provided insights into objective and subjective...

This article analyses the relationship between the main antecedents of and imports/GNP ratio as a subtle reflector of macro-level consumer ethnocentrism (CE). We constructed a model that reflects the macro level ethnocentrism in a domestic country. This ratio expresses the economy openness of a...

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is expected that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both naive forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside...

DMS/2 (Decisional Models Solution, version 2) is a computer package for solution of nonlinear econometric models. This technical report describes the new features that improve over the DMS-package.

This paper argues that the solution to a dynamic optimization problem of consumption and labor under finite information-processing capacity can simultaneously explain the intertemporal and intratemporal labor wedges. It presents a partial equilibrium model, where a representative risk adverse...

Many central banks have come to rely on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, or DSGE, models to inform their economic outlook and to help formulate their policy strategies. But while their use is familiar to policymakers and academics, these models are typically not well known outside these...