useful information about variables such as commodity prices which matter for aggregate demand and thus inflation. Given this …

inflation. We find that based on a cointegrated VAR model there is a positive long-run relationship between inflation and the … found does not sufficiently take into account changes in policy settings following the high inflation experiences in the …

empirical part consists of a cointegration analysis with an error correction mechanism from the mid 80s until 2005. We are able …

Summary This paper analyses the inflation rate in Germany by means of a common trends model. Starting from an IS …-LM model of the open economy, we conduct a cointegration analysis from which we obtain plausible long-run relationships. In the … next step, we identify structural shocks with permanent and transitory effects and study their impacts on the inflation …

Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on … the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a … are also reported on. The first shows that cointegration vector parameter estimation error is crucial when using VEC …