Theoretically, uniform trade taxes (uniform tariff-cum-subsidies, UTCSs) are equivalent in effect to devaluations of the commercial rate in a dual exchange rate system - if one disregards smuggling and customs fraud. When either form of illegal trade is factored in, this equivalence is broken,...

This paper deals with the effects of disinflation on economic activity in"chronic inflation"countries -- countries with a long inflationary history above the rates in industrialized countries, where labor and capital markets are adjusted to function in the inflationary environment. The sample is...

Drawing on evidence from a large sample of speculative attacks in industrial and developing countries, the author argues that high interest rates do not defend currencies against speculative attacks. In fact, there is a striking lack of any systematic association between interest rates and the...

The authors construct, estimate, and simulate a macroeconomic model for Chile. This model allows aggregate supply and demand factors to interact in determining such key economic variables as inflation, the real wage, the real exchange rate, real output and employment, and the current account...

The academic and policy debate about optimal foreign exchange rate regimes for emerging economies, has focused more on the theoretical costs and benefits of possible regimes, than on their actual performance. The authors report on what can be called exchange-rate-regime-dependent differential...

This paper develops a two equation model for measuring how public sector deficits - and the way that they are financed - affect the real exchange rate, the trade balance, the current account and the level of external indebtedness. One equation relates the real exchange rate to the trade surplus...

The author uses a regime switching framework to study speculative attacks against European Monetary System (EMS) currencies during 1979-93. She identifies speculative attacks by modeling exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates as time series subject to discrete regime shifts. She assumes...

The authors develop a simple, formal framework for clarifying the tradeoffs involved in choosing between a fixed and flexible exchange rate system. They apply this framework to the countries of Africa's CFA Zone, which have maintained fixed parity with the French franc since independence....

In the past, the Thai government usually ran a budget deficit. In recent years, the deficit has become a surplus. A continued high growth rate in the last three years produced an unexpected rise in tax revenues, and the growth of public spending was effectively controlled. The government has...

The authors develop and apply a macroeconomic general equilibrium model for Zimbabwe. The country faces the challenge of engaging in a program of fiscal stabilization and structural reform to address its current fiscal imbalance, high unemployment, and low growth prospects. The authors discuss...