We propose and examine a simple model for credit migration and spread curves of a single firm both under the real-world and the risk-neutral measure. This model is a hybrid of a structural and a reduced-form model. Default is triggered either by successive downgradings of the firm or an...

Credit risk measurement and management become more important in all financial institutions in the light of the current financial crisis and the global recession. This particularly applies to most of the complex structured financing forms whose risk cannot be quantified with com-mon rating...

This paper presents ideas for improved conditional probability assessment and improved expert systems consultations. It cautions that knowledge engineers may sometimes be imprecise when capturing causal information from experts: their elicitation questions may not distinguish between causal and...

Riordan and Sappington (JET, 1988) show that in an agency relationship in which the agent’s type is correlated with a public ex post signal, the principal may attain first best (full surplus extraction and efficient output levels) if the agent is faced with a lottery such that each type is...

Because the use of p-values in statistical inference often involves the rejection of a hypothesis on the basis of a number that itself assumes the hypothesis to be true, many in the scientific community argue that inference should instead be based on the hypothesis' actual probability...

Because the use of p-values in statistical inference often involves the rejection of a hypothesis on the basis of a number that itself assumes the hypothesis to be true, many in the scientific community argue that inference should instead be based on the hypothesis' actual probability...