We start from the assertion that a useful monetary policy design should be founded on more realistic assumptions about what policymakers can know at the time when policy decisions have to be made. Since the Taylor rule - if used as an operational device - implies a forward looking behaviour, we...

The prominent measure of the current state of the Czech economy, gross domestic product (GDP), is available only with a significant lag of roughly 70 days. In this paper, we employ a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) to nowcast Czech GDP in real time. Using multiple vintages of historical data and...

In this paper we use a battery of various mixed-frequency data models to forecast Czech GDP. The models employed are mixed-frequency vector autoregressions, mixed-data sampling models, and the dynamic factor model. Using a dataset of historical vintages of unrevised macroeconomic and financial...

This paper provides a general strategy for analyzing monetary policy in real time which accounts for data uncertainty without explicitly modelling the revision process. The strategy makes use of all the data available from a real-time data matrix and averages model estimates across all data...

This paper provides a general strategy for analyzing monetary policy in real time which accounts for data uncertainty without explicitly modelling the revision process. The strategy makes use of all the data available from a real-time data matrix and averages model estimates across all data...

This paper provides a general strategy for analyzing monetary policy in real time which accounts for data uncertainty without explicitly modelling the revision process. The strategy makes use of all the data available from a real-time data matrix and averages model estimates across all data...

This paper studies data revision properties of GDP growth and inflation as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for the Indian economy. We find that data revisions to GDP growth and WPI inflation in India are significant. The results show that revisions to GDP growth and WPI inflation can...

This paper analyses nowcasting of manetary policy in an uncertain data environment.Nowcasting induces a relative asymmetry-a ratio of asymmetric preference for output nowcasting to the one for inflation in real-time.We propose a nowcasting Taylor rule to eliminate biases in the asymmetric...

The Great Moderation is often characterized by the decline in the variability of output and inflation from earlier periods. While a multitude of explanations for the Great Moderation exist, notable research has focused on the role of monetary policy. Specifically, early evidence suggested that...

Monetary policy rule parameters are usually estimated at the mean of the interest rate distribution conditional on inflation and an output gap. This is an incomplete description of monetary policy reactions when the parameters are not uniform over the conditional distribution of the interest...