All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for...

This report offers an extensive analysis of the effects of the EU Single Market. It sheds light on four interrelated aspects: It first reveals the asymmetric economic performance across member countries, which also mirrors structural differences. These differences in economic outcomes are next...

As China becomes more closely entwined with the US, positive shocks in the US translate into positive outcomes for China, but the extent of gain for the US during the convergence process is less clear. We develop an empirical framework of two interacting open economies in which Chinese GDP per...

This paper investigates the effect of export shocks on innovation. On the one hand a positive shock increases market size and therefore innovation incentives for all firms. On the other hand it increases competition as more firms enter the export market. This in turn reduces profits and...

From the introduction of the euro up to the 2008 global financial crisis, macroeconomic imbalances widened among Member States. This divergence took the form of strong differences in the dynamics of unit labour costs. This paper asks why this happened. Is it the result of distortionary public...

The paper uses a partial equilibrium model to simulate times series on inputs utilization rates--capital utilization and labor effort--for 10 OECD countries. The resulting series are filtered from standard measures of the Solow residual. The main findings are as follows: once variable inputs...

In this paper, labor productivity growth and its impacts are studied at the industry level. The development of productivity is analyzed in 54 industries in 14 EU countries and in the US between 1979 and 2001. The conclusion of the study is that the industry structure that leads to fast...

This paper studies the impact of exchange rate regimes on inflation, nominal money growth, real interest rates, and growth performance. We find that, for non-industrial economies, "long" pegs (defined as those lasting for five or more consecutive years) are associated with lower inflation than...

We study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth for a sample of 154 countries over the post-Bretton Woods period (1974-1999), using a new de facto classification of regimes based on the actual behavior of the relevant macroeconomic variables. In contrast with previous...

We show that capital controls have large adverse effects on misallocation, exports and welfare using a dynamic Melitz-OLG model with heterogeneous firms, monopolistic competition, endogenous trade participation and collateral constraints. Static effects increase misallocation by reducing...