This paper studies the determinants of business cycles in small open economies and adds to the discussion about the changing nature of inflation dynamics. We estimate a series of VAR models for a set of six Asian emerging market economies, in which we identify a battery of domestic and global...

There has been much interest recently in the relationship between economic conditions and mortality, with some studies showing that mortality is pro-cyclical, while others find the opposite. Some suggest that the aggregation level of analysis (e.g. individual vs. regional) matters. We use both...

In this paper, we explore the relationship between state-level household income inequality and macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States. Using a novel large-scale macroeconometric model, we shed light on regional disparities of inequality responses to a national uncertainty shock. The...

The macroeconomic experience of the last decade stressed the importance of jointly studying the growth and business cycle fluctuations behavior of the economy. To analyze this issue, we embed a model of Schumpeterian growth into an estimated medium-scale DSGE model. Results from a Bayesian...

We analyze the transmission of producer price in inflation shocks across the U.S. manufacturing industries from 1947 to 2018 using the Diebold-Yilmaz Connectedness Index framework, which fully utilizes the information in generalized variance decompositions from vector autoregressions. The...

This paper revisits the personal expenditure tax (PET), the most prominent version of a progressive consumption tax. The PET has a long intellectual tradition in economics, and the merits and demerits of this alternative to the personal income tax have been discussed at length. What has been...

The international diffusion of technology plays a key role in stimulating global growth and explaining co-movements of international equity returns. Existing empirical evidence suggests that countries are heterogeneous in their attitude toward innovation: Some countries rely more on technology...

This paper shows that increased volatility of Örm-level productivity can push the nominal interest rate to its lower bound with large amplification effects on macroeconomic aggregates. The framework combines a simple canonical Önancial accelerator model, time varying risk shocks, and a zero...

Policy makers would like to prevent self-fulfilling fluctuations. Given the prevalence of occasionally binding constraints (OBCs) such as the zero lower bound (ZLB), this requires understanding the determinacy of models with OBCs. To this end, we derive existence and uniqueness conditions for...

The federal funds rate became uninformative about the stance of monetary policy from December 2008 to November 2015. During the same period, unconventional monetary policy actions, like large-scale asset purchases, show the Federal Reserve’s intention to depress longer-term interest rates....