The market for law professors fulfils the conditions for a hog cycle: in the short run, supply cannot be extended or limited; future law professors must be hired soon after they first present themselves, or leave the market; demand is inelastic. Using a comprehensive German dataset, we show that...

In this paper we consider regression models with forecast feedback. Agents' expectations are formed via the recursive estimation of the parameters in an auxiliary model. The learning scheme employed by the agents belongs to the class of stochastic approximation algorithms whose gain sequence is...

Strong consistency of least squares estimators of the slope parameter in simple linear regression models is established for predetermined stochastic regressors. The main result covers a class of models which falls outside the applicability of what is presently available in the literature. An...

We assess the efficiency of monetary policy to guide inflation expectations in high and low regimes. Using quantile regression we analyze the persistence of inflation expectations from the Consensus Economics Survey at different quantiles. We find a) empirical evidence that expectations are not...

By using the Economic Sentiment Indicator and Autoregressive Markov Switching models, this paper provides an effective tool to identify and characterize expectations of business cycle phases for Germany, Spain, the Euro Area, and the European Union. This information is useful for policy makers...

The paper analyses the price on domestic market for an aggregate commodity produced by Norwegian private mainland economy. The long-run solution is modelled assuming imperfect competition. The elasticities with respect to unit labour costs and competing prices vary with an indicator for...

The Norwegian export price for an aggregated commodity is modelled assuming price-setting behaviour. The focus is on the choice between backward- and forward looking models. The dynamics is modelled according to three different approaches; a backward looking error correction model and two...

Conjectures about inflation expectations are inextricably linked to our understanding of the relationship between the real and monetary sides of the economy; yet, direct empirical research on the matter has been scarce at best. This paper therefore examines the empirical properties of inflation...

This work built on financial literature on rolling window Granger-causality testing (RWGCT) methodology, specifically expanding its early theme of speculative trading which emerged in 2009 following the food price crisis. Although many times driving the commodity prices in reality, the...

In this paper, we present a new indicator to measure the media coverage of inflation. Our Inflation Perception Indicator (IPI) for Germany is based on a corpus of three million articles published by broadsheet newspapers between January 2001 and November 2022. It is designed to detect thematic...