This paper documents macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by two key central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The paper is the result of a collaborative effort between the two institutions, allowing us to study the time-stamped...

A review essay of Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg's Beyond Mechanical Markets: Asset Price Swings, Risk, and the Role of the State.

Through this paper I try to join the lively debate around mainstream economics with a view to calling attention to some methodological aspects. It is aimed at outlining an interpretation based on Max Weber's traditional neoclassical methodology that can help us to find the adequate territory of...

This work nests the Agent-Based macroeconomic perspective into the earlier history of macroeconomics. We discuss how the discipline in the 70's took a perverse path relying on models grounded on fictitious rational representative agent in order to try to pathetically circumvent aggregation and...

Hamilton (2018) argues that one should never use the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter to detrend economic time series and proposes an alternative approach. This comment reconsiders Hamilton's case against the HP filter, emphasizing two simple points. First, in the empirical example Hamilton...

A multiplicity of equilibria, steady states, cycles, etc., are prominent features of models with complementarities. Multiplicity suggests the instability of an economic system and the sensitive dependence of the equilibrium behavior on the environment. In this lecture, I discuss some...

Robert Lucas' 1972 article on the neutrality of money represented the first effective challenge to Samuelson's neoclassical synthesis methodological separation between static microeconomic optimization and macroeconomic dynamics. Lucas rejected disequilibrium price dynamics, as expressed by the...

The Great Recession seems to be a natural experiment for economic analysis, in that it has shown the inadequacy of the predominant theoretical framework - the New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) - grounded on the DSGE model. In this paper, we present a critical discussion of the theoretical,...

This paper is an exercise in dating the Euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. Using a quite flexible interpolation routine. we construct several monthly series of Euro area GDP, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. To account for the asymmetry in growth regimes and duration...

This paper, after reviewing the most used method from the two main branches of empirical investigation, namely the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and the production function, argues that they both suffer from significant failings when applied to very small and open economies like Malta.