It is well known that over the next several decades, there will be significant changes in the age structure of OECD populations. According to recent demographic projections by the United Nations, the share of the old-aged population is expected to double, on average, over the next 50 years in...

The goal of this paper is to disentangle permanent and transitory components of U.S stock prices, using the SVECM methodology of King, Plosser, Stock and Watson (1991). This methodology uses the information contained in the cointegration vectors to identify the structural permanent shocks in the...

In this paper we describe in detail the general structure of a multi-country, multi-sector, dynamic general equilibrium model with imperfect competition. We also discuss the numerical data requirements and the calibration procedure, and we offer an illustrative simulation exercise based on a...

This paper examines the evolution of elderly families’ relative income. Its main objectives are to assess whether the income of elderly families has been following a downward trend in recent years and to compare their financial situation to that of non-elderly families. We use data from the...

This paper shows that managing the risk of a budget deficit has (at least) two elements, the level of fiscal prudence, and the scope for discretionary measures (e.g., scope for reducing program spending). These two elements jointly determine the probability of a deficit outcome. The magnitude of...

Firstly, the study illustrates in a stochastic simulation model that permanent commitments to tax and spending measures can be enriched significantly without substantially raising the risk of a deficit outcome. This result is obtained in a framework where the fiscal authority is able to monitor...

This paper examines the capacity of a variety of macroeconomic indicators to forecast a one-quarter decline in U.S. real GDP in a given quarter using a standard probit model. We find the U.S Conference Board index of coincident indicators of U.S. economic activity to be the best single...

This paper presents an indicator, or non-structural model of inflation in Canada that provides forecasts up to four quarters ahead. Our indicator model is not based on a tight theoretical foundation, but it incorporates most of the factors that are thought to cause inflation. The model also...