The worker to non-worker ratio in Canada is forecasted to fall dramatically over the next few decades due both to demographic pressures and the recent decline in the average age of retirement. If governments desire to reverse these trends, it is necessary to determine whether altering Canada’s...

It is well known that over the next several decades, important demographic changes will occur in most industrialised countries. As the baby-boom generation reaches the age of retirement, the share of the population aged 65 and over will increase rapidly. There is a growing concern that the...

In this paper we examine the impact of technological change on unemployment and employment in Canada. We focus in particular on the argument that an increase in the pace of technological change has been responsible for Canada’s poor employment performance in the 1990s. We outline some economic...

The goal of this paper was to create a short-term forecasting model for total employment in Canada. In an attempt to increase forecasting accuracy compared to typical forecasting models, a composite index of leading indicators of employment was created. The index performs very well in signalling...

This paper documents the specification of a model that was constructed specifically for the purpose of analysing alternative strategies for implementing monetary and fiscal policy in Canada using stochastic simulation methods. Some key features of the model are as follows. The domestic sector of...

The 1990s have posed a major challenge in terms of the predictive role of the term spread. The results from a typical indicator model suggested an average GDP growth rate substantially higher than the one we observed over the 1992-98 period. In this paper, the authors propose and empirically...