This paper proposes new leading economic indexes for Canadian provinces, based on the NBER methodology, to monitor future short-term business cycle developments. The empirical evaluation of the performance of the NBER leading economic indexes in signaling cyclical turning points and forecasting...

This paper considers a broader fiscal policy framework in public debt management decisions by examining the interrelations between interest rates and the economy. This approach has the potential to result in a new optimal debt maturity structure. A shorter debt structure is generally less...

This paper examines whether there is any reason to believe that the expansion phase of the Canadian business cycle is more likely to end as time passes. Three issues are analysed -- whether there is evidence of "duration dependence" in business cycle phases, whether the pattern of business cycle...

Two competing measures of productivity are commonly used by both academics and policy makers. These are labour productivity—output per hour—and total factor productivity (TFP)—which measures productivity net of the contribution of capital. Which measure is the ‘best’ has been the...

That shifts in the fundamental factors determining real exchange rates in the long term have strongly affected exchange rate movements is an increasingly popular idea. In particular, Amano and van Norden (1993) suggest that movements in Canada's terms of trade were particularly important in...