In recent monetary history, central banks around the world have started to introduce unconventional monetary policy measures, such as extending or restructuring the asset side of their balance sheet. The origin of these monetary policy tools goes back to an intervention by the U.S. Federal...

Previous studies show that the standard univariate unit root tests cannot reject the hypothesis that interest rates follow integrated processes. In this paper, we pool interest rate data of twelve OECD countries and implement a multivariate test. It is found that the unit root hypothesis can be...

We use post-war quarterly data from Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Japan, theNetherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States to examine the Fisherian link between inflation and the short-term nominal interest rates.

In this paper, address the problem of testing persistent causality between integrated, possibly cointegrated, time series.

We develop methods of non-parametric estimation for the Expected Shortfall of possibly heavy tailed asset returns that leads to asymptotically standard inference. We use a tail-trimming indicator to dampen extremes negligibly, ensuring standard Gaussian inference, and a higher rate of...

Using Gretl, I apply ARMA, Vector ARMA, VAR, state-space model with a Kalman filter, transfer-function and intervention models, unit root tests, cointegration test, volatility models (ARCH, GARCH, ARCH-M, GARCH-M, Taylor-Schwert GARCH, GJR, TARCH, NARCH, APARCH, EGARCH) to analyze quarterly time...

Log periodogram (LP) regression is shown to be consistent and to have a mixed normal limit distribution when the memory parameter d = 1. Gaussian errors are not required. Tests of d = 1 based on LP regression are consistent against d < 1 alternatives but inconsistent against d > 1 alternatives. A test based on a modified LP regression that...</1>

In the present paper we confine ourselves to proposing tests for smooth transition nonlinearity in the presence ou outliers. We consider outlier robust estimation techniques to modify the tests developed by Luukkonen et al

Changing seasonal patterns in economic time series can be described by auregressive models with seasonal unit roots or with deterministic sesaonal mean shifts.By means of simulation we demonstrate the impact of imposing the incorrect model on forecasting. We find for both cases that an...

In this paper we consider model selection for time series with increasing (or decreasing) seasonal variation, where this variation can be described by (seasonal) unit root models with significant deterministic components or by models with less unit roots but with shiftsin seasonal means or trends