This paper provides new evidence that sustained budget deficits reduce national saving and raise interest rates by economically and statistically significant quantities. Using a series of econometric specifications that nest Ricardian and non-Ricardian models, we obtain evidence of strong...

This paper analyzes the effects on present consumption of budget deficits under different assumptions regarding demographics. In the first part, birth and death rates are deterministic; and in the second part, birth rates are assumed to be stochastic. In the case of a deterministic population...

Global current account imbalances have been one of the focal points of interest for policymakers during the last few years. Less attention has been paid, however, to the diverging current account balances of the individual euro area countries. In this paper we consider the dynamics of current...

This paper contributes to the understanding of the international financial linkages created by US banks by looking at the geographical composition and structure of the balance sheet of foreign branches. The empirical investigation, which is based on a novel dataset containing balance sheet...

We analyze the sources of current account fluctuations for the G6 economies. Based on Bergin and Sheffrin's (2000) two-goods inter-temporal framework, we build a SVAR model including the world real interest rate, net output, real exchange rate, and the current account. The theory model allows...

Three current account imbalances - one very large deficit (the United States) and two surpluses (Japan and the Euro area) - are subjected to a minimalist structural interpretation. Though simple, this interpretation enables us to assess how much of each of the imbalances require a real exchange...

The present paper extends the Obstfeld and Rogoff (2005) framework of current account imbalances by the oil exporting countries as a fourth region. It sets the stage for a variety of analysis that can be conducted within a four-region-setting that accounts for the importance of OPEC as a major...

This paper studies how removing barriers to competition in the nontraded goods sector affects the current account, the real exchange rate, and factor prices in a small open economy. We show that the expansion of the nontraded sector that results from a "deregulation shock" is associated with an...

We analyze the global imbalances and the required adjustments for rebalancing in current accounts and real exchange rates. We set up a two-country two-sector model for the US-China with two asymmetries. First, we assume that the size of China initially is one third of the US but its size becomes...

Lee and Chinn (2006) and Chinn and Lee (2009) decomposed the current account and real exchange rate into temporary and permanent shocks, and argued that a temporary shock creates the combination of current account surplus (deficit) and real exchange rate depreciation (appreciation). This paper...