The world is in the midst of a significant demographic transition with important implications for the macroeconomic performance of the global economy. This paper summarizes the key features of the current and projected future demographic change that are likely to have macroeconomic effects. It...

We investigate the dynamic effects of five different fiscal shocks on the US economy using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that uses Blanchard-Quah type restrictions. We find that an increase in indirect taxes or in corporate taxes has a contractionary effect on the economy,...

To help maintain price stability in New Zealand a countercyclical use of the goods and services tax (GST) has been proposed. This paper argues that a variable GST rate is unlikely to be a useful stabilisation tool for monetary policy. It first discusses some of the problems that would arise with...

This paper poses a multivariate test for contagion that distinguishes between vulnerability, positive and negative contagion. The model proides a time series of contagion with which the existence, severity and significance of crisis periods can be endogenously determined. Eleven stock markets...

This paper provides a signaling-game theoretical foundation for empirically testing the effects of quality report cards in the U.S. health care industry. It shows that, when health care providers face an identical distribution of patient illness severities, a trade-off between multidimensional...

In this paper we compare the most common reduced form models used for emissions forecasting, point out shortcomings and suggest improvements. Using a U.S. state level panel data set of CO2 emissions we test the performance of existing models against a large universe of potential reduced form...

This paper focuses on testing providers' moral hazard caused by a health care report card policy. We argue that, to indicate providers' moral hazard, empirical approaches should be based on understanding that the policy may cause different sides of participants to take actions. Neglecting this,...

The ability of financial frictions to amplify the output response of monetary policy, as in the financial accelerator model of Bernanke et al. (1999), is analyzed for a wider class of policy rules where the policy interest rate responds to both inflation and the output gap. When policy makers...