Empirical analysis of exchange rates has produced puzzles that conventional models of exchange rates cannot explain. Here we deal with four puzzles regarding both real and nominal exchange rates, which are robust and inconsistent with standard theory. These puzzles are that both real and nominal...

Based on a unique data set on Russian city budgets, this paper shows that revenue sharing between regional and local governments provides local governments with no incentive to increase tax base or provide public goods. Any change in local government’s own revenues is almost entirely offset by...

In unequal societies, the rich may benefit from shaping economic institutions in their favor. This paper analyzes the dynamics of institutional subversion by focusing on the public protection of property rights. If this institution functions imperfectly, agents have incentives to invest in...

We develop a methodology of parametric modeling of time series dynamics when the underlying loss function is linear-exponential (Linex). We propose to directly model the dynamics of the conditional expectation that determines the optimal predictor. The procedure hinges on the exponential quasi...

The paper shows how the time considerations, especially those concerning contract duration, affect incomplete contract theory. Time is not only a dimension along which the relationship unfolds but also a continuous verifiable variable that can be included in contracts. We consider a bilateral...

We introduce financial constraints in a theoretical analysis of illegal immigration. Intermediaries finance the migration costs of wealth-constrained migrants, who enter temporary servitude contracts to repay the debt. These debt/labor contracts are easier to enforce in the illegal than in the...

How can a non-democratic ruler provide proper incentives for state bureaucracy? In the absense of competitive elections and separation of powers, the ruler has to gather information either from a centralized agency such as a secret service or a decentralized source such as media. The danger of...

Long times series on production of gold and the value of gold, taken from Jastram’s book The Golden Constant, are used to estimate a Cagan-type demand function that relates the real total value of gold to its expected rate of return. The model assumes that gold production and a latent scale...

We investigate the distribution and evolution of intertrade durations for frequently traded stocks at the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange. We use a flexible econometric model based on ARMA and GARCH which, when coupled with a certain class of distributions that allow for skewness and...

This paper tests the theory of opportunistic cycles in a decade-old democracy, Russia, finds strong evidence of cycles, and provides explanation for why previous literature often found weaker evidence. Using the comprehensive list of Russia's regional elections and regional monthly panel data...