Untersuchungen zur Prognosegüte sollten nicht nur Prognosefehler, die auf der Schätzung der Parameter beruhen berücksichtigen, sondern auch solche, die aus der stichprobenabhängigen Auswahl des Prognosemodells resultieren. Wird die Prognosefehlervarianz durch rekursive Out-of-Sample...

Despite the fact that the correlation between policy rates in the U.S. and in the euro area has been low—at least over the past three decades—long term interest rates in the two regions have been highly correlated. More recently (since the early 1990s) their levels have also...

We show that an extension of the Markov-switching dynamic factor models that accounts for the specificities of the day to day monitoring of economic developments such as ragged edges, mixed frequencies and data revisions is a good tool to forecast the Euro area recessions in real time. We...

Indicators of trust, confidence, optimism or sentiment among consumers and/or investors, are published continuously in the mass media. More importantly, these indices seem not only to reflect how the state of the real economy is perceived by private agents, but can also help predict the future...

This paper examines the inclusion of the dollar/euro exchange rate together with four important and highly traded commodities - aluminum, copper, gold and oil- in symmetric and asymmetric multivariate GARCH and DCC models. The inclusion of exchange rate increases the significant direct and...

This study aims at presenting a new computation index, which simultaneously measures the time and space variation of the various economic indices. The elaboration method of the space-time index is based on a matrix construct, the time and space variation of the analyzed economic index being...

The aim of this chapter is to assess the possible impacts of the Doha round of negotiations on poverty in Cameroon. During the recent period of economic recovery, Cameroon has enjoyed a sharp decline in poverty with the headcount index falling from 53.3 percent of inhabitants in 1996 to 40.2...

The author proposes and evaluates econometric models that try to explain and forecast real quarterly housing expenditures in Canada. Structural and leading-indicator models of the Canadian housing sector are described. The long-run relationship between expenditure and its determinants is shown...

Bu çalışmada Türkiye için 1980-2005 dönemi verileri kullanılarak tahmin edilen bir VAR modeli yardımıyla temel makro iktisadi değişkenlerden reel gelir, fiyatlar, ithalatın ihracatı karşılama oranı ve reel faiz oranı değişkenleri üzerine 2006-2015 yıllarını kapsayan bir...