The aim of this paper is to study the impact on economic growth of public pension systems, both funded and unfunded, under different demographic scenarios with a competitive economy and a fixed labor supply. An OLG growth model is used with realistic demography, in which each individual can be...

In this paper, we discuss the structure of a forward-looking model of the Japanese economy, which has been jointly developed by the Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University, and the Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, and use the model to simulate policies for fiscal...

In the wake of the recent international economic recession in 2008-2009, forecasting methods designed to anticipate business cycles have been widely revisited. Recent innovative econometric methods were presented and widely discussed by academics and economists from international and national...

La toma de decisiones de política económica requiere estimaciones del comportamiento de la actividad económica en tiempo real. Sin embargo, la información utilizada solo está disponible a nivel de indicadores de actividad y de encuestas de opinión, los cuales suelen tener distintas...

Este artículo examina el impacto del grado de apertura exterior en el crecimiento y desarrollo económicos de un grupo de 85 países de renta media en el periodo 1970-2009. Se emplean técnicas de cointegración en un panel heterogéneo no estacionario con el fin de tomar en consideración el...

This paper explores whether professional macroeconomic forecasters manipulate their forecasts to influence voting outcomes. We model a referendum in which a voter chooses between two policies. The voter relies on a forecaster to learn about the macroeconomic consequences of the policies. The...

We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed test has more power relative to both a bootstrap...

This study estimated Tunisia's potential growth with a Cobb-Douglas production function using an unobservable component model within structural changes context for the period 1989-2023. It investigated the major shocks' effects on the potential growth and its components. In contrast with most...

Wir untersuchen anhand von repräsentativen Daten für die Privatwirtschaft (Verdienststrukturerhebung 2018) Anteile und Höhe von umgewandelten Entgelten nach verschiedenen individuellen und betrieblichen Merkmalen von Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmern in Deutschland für das Jahr 2018....

Rational respondents to economic surveys may report as a point forecast any measure of the central tendency of their (possibly latent) predictive distribution, for example the mean, median, mode, or any convex combination thereof. We propose tests of forecast rationality when the measure of...