This paper examines the relative importance of global and domestic factors as a source of macroeconomic fluctuations in Brazil from 1995 to 2004. US and Brazilian credit spreads are encompassed in a near-VAR model, including the main debt-related domestic variables. The US corporate bond spread...

This interesting and provocative collection of essays addresses most if not all of the key current policy issues in open economy macroeconomics: the strong dollar, LDC debt problems, and deficit financing.

This paper addresses the following question: If a financial crisis affecting a group of emerging economies were to take place sometime over the next three years, where would the crisis likely originate, how could it be transmitted to other economies, and which economies would be most affected by...

In the present paper, we develop a two-sector general equilibrium model of a small open economy to explore the transmission mechanisms of external financial shocks. In particular, we use a cash-in- advance model with limited participation augmented with a financial friction in the form of a...

This paper aims at discussing critically Pérsio Arida’s proposal of adopting currency convertibility in Brazil. Arida (2003a, 2003b, 2004) points out that currency convertibility would make for lower interest rates in Brazil, as well as for lower interest rates for the Brazilian external...

This paper investigates the relationship between external debt and economic growth in poor countries. The adverse effects of external debt on economic performance are due to the crowding out of public investment and to the disincentive effects, because of debt overhang and uncertainty....

We examine the firm- and country-level determinants of the currency denomination of small business loans. We first model the choice of loan currency in a framework which features a trade-off between lower cost of debt and the risk of firm-level distress costs, and also examines the impact of...

Questions over the role of the IMF in the economic development and adjustment in developing countries have been the topic of intensive research and debate in recent years. Although most studies find that participation in an IMF program helps facilitate balance of payments adjustment, research in...

This study investigates the systematic risk factors driving emerging market (EM) credit risk by jointly modelling sovereign and corporate credit spreads at a global level. We use a multi-regional Bayesian panel VAR model, with time-varying betas and multivariate stochastic volatility. This model...

El documento plantea estrategia para el tratamiento progresivo de la deuda externa, sustentada en el reconocimiento de que, en las actuales condiciones, la deuda peruana con el sistema financiero internacional es impagable, por lo cual resulta imprescindible reducirla a un 50% de su valor...