becoming a metric for rationality. When inferential expectations are built into a Dornbusch-style model of the exchange rate … inferential expectations. If a belief is overturned through the build-up of evidence, agents are assumed to switch to the rational … expectation. Rational expectations are shown to be a special (limiting) case of inferential expectations, with the test size a …

assumption that belief formation be treated as a classical hypothesis test, which we label inferential expectations, can explain … predictions. In our stochastic environment, inferential expectations with a low test size alpha (conservative inferential … expectations) predict exchange rates better than rational expectations in ten sessions out of twelve. Belief conservatism appears …

becoming a metric for rationality. We present the results of an experiment that supports inferential expectations. When … inferential expectations. If a belief is overturned through the build-up of evidence, agents are assumed to switch to the rational … expectation. Rational expectations are shown to be a special (limiting) case of inferential expectations, with the test size alpha …

assumption that belief formation be treated as a classical hypothesis test, which we label inferential expectations, can explain … predictions. In our stochastic environment, inferential expectations with a low test size alpha (conservative inferential … expectations) predict exchange rates better than rational expectations in ten sessions out of twelve. Belief conservatism appears …

becoming a metric for rationality. When inferential expectations are built into a Dornbusch-style model of the exchange rate … inferential expectations. If a belief is overturned through the build-up of evidence, agents are assumed to switch to the rational … expectation. Rational expectations are shown to be a special (limiting) case of inferential expectations, with the test size alpha …

assumption that belief formation be treated as a classical hypothesis test, which we label inferential expectations, can explain … predictions. In our stochastic environment, inferential expectations with a low test size alpha (conservative inferential … expectations) predict exchange rates better than rational expectations in ten sessions out of twelve. Belief conservatism appears …

are tracked well. In a stochastic treatment, we model expectations using a Neyman–Pearson hypothesis test (inferential … expectations) and find evidence of belief conservatism and uncovered interest rate parity failure. The market environment magnifies …

becoming a metric for rationality. We present the results of an experiment that supports inferential expectations. When … inferential expectations. If a belief is overturned through the build-up of evidence, agents are assumed to switch to the rational … expectation. Rational expectations are shown to be a special (limiting) case of inferential expectations, with the test size alpha …