We build a political economy model of state policy choice highlighting the challenges to breaking barriers to the adoption of inclusive policies in Africa. We highlight necessary and sufficient conditions for a political leader to gain from implementing exclusive policies: (i) Implementing...

We document the real business cycle properties of foreign aid to poor countries. We show that aid exhibits the following empirical regularities over a twenty-five year period. First, it represents a significant source of income for the recipients. Second, it is very volatile--two to three times...

In this paper, we document empirical regularities in the foreign aid flows to developing countries over the last three decades. In spite of a large body of literature on foreign aid and its impact on recipients, surprisingly little is known about its business cycle characteristics. We show that,...

Economic fluctuations are much stronger in developing countries than in the United States. Yet, while a large literature debates what constitutes a reasonable estimate of the welfare cost of business cycles in the US, it remains an open question how large that cost is in developing countries....

We examine the effects of famine relief efforts (food aid) in regions undergoing civil war. In our model, warlords seize a fraction of all aid entering the region. How much they loot affects their choice of army size; therefore the manner in which aid is delivered influences warfare. We identify...

We quantify foreign aid's potential as an insurance mechanism against macroeconomic shocks. Within a dynamic model of aid flows between two endowment economies, we show that at least three fourths of the large welfare costs of macroeconomic fluctuations in poor countries could be alleviated by a...

Gains from trade come a certain degree of specialisation among trade partners. Specialisation in the case of an agriculture-based developing country might be feared to imply a higher reliance than ever on low skill labour. Trade might thus be seen as a step away from the much awaited structural...

Existing estimates of the welfare cost of business cycles suggest that it is quite low and might well be minuscule. Many of these estimates are based on aggregate U.S. consumption data. Arguably, because markets are incomplete and risk-sharing is imperfect, the welfare costs computed with...

In the presence of even small moral hazard, Hansen & Imrohoroglu (1992) show that the unemployment insurance should be much less generous than without moral hazard. This has important implications in the light of recent reforms. We question this result by adding a social component to the model:...

Extant estimates of the welfare cost of business cycles suggest that this cost is quite low and might well be minuscule. Those estimates are based on consumption data for the United States as a whole. The volatility of aggregate consumption, however, is much stronger at the state level. We argue...