In this study we analyze the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange rate using the ITH method. We determine regime changes based on two different methods: First, we allow the data to determine the regime changes and estimate the reaction of monetary policy to different exchange...

Policy counterfactuals based on estimated structural VARs routinely suggest that bringing Alan Greenspan back in the 1970s’ United States would not have prevented the Great Inflation. We show that a standard policy counterfactual suggests that the Bundesbank–which is near-universally...

The paper discusses the structural changes taking place in the financial system of the Republic of Croatia after the country became independent. Particular attention is given to the banking system, bankruptcies and rehabilitation of banks. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the development of...

Predicting the federal funds rate and beating the federal funds futures market: mission impossible? Not so. We employ a Markov transition process and show that this model outperforms the federal funds futures market in predicting the target federal funds rate. Thus, by using purely historical...

While the degree of policy inertia in central banks' reaction functions is a central ingredient in theoretical and empirical monetary economics, the source of the observed policy inertia in the United States is controversial, with tests of competing hypotheses, such as interest-smoothing and...

Para los bancos centrales con régimen de inflación-objetivo modificar la tasa de interés de política monetaria como respuesta a la apreciación de la tasa cambio puede poner en riesgo el cumplimiento de la meta de inflación. Este trabajo determina qué tan importante ha sido el...

The launch of the euro has fed doubts concerning the constitution of an optimal European monetary zone. Indeed, the differences in legal, institutional and cultural frameworks… as well as the diversity of the productive and financial European systems may have led to the idea that Europe does...

Most macroeconomic models, such as the IS-LM, assume equilibrium in money markets. Since money demand is an inverse function of velocity, an inaccurate estimate of velocity will lead to errors in calculating the monetary and general equilibria. This note suggests a way to gauge the potential...

In this article, time-series models are developed to represent three alternative, potential monetary policy regimes as monetary policy returns to normal. The first regime is a return to the high and volatile inflation rate of the 1970s. The second regime, the one expected by most Federal Reserve...

An important concern for the European Central Bank (ECB), and all central banks alike, is the necessity of making decisions in real time under conditions of great uncertainty about the underlying state of the economy. We address this concern by estimating on real-time data a New Keynesian model...