Operational Risk (OR) results from endogenous and exogenous risk factors, as diverse and complex to assess as human resources and technology, which may not be properly measured using traditional quantitative approaches. Engineering has faced the same challenges when designing practical solutions...

Historical time-series data is short relative to the frequency of political and economic crises. This makes it difficult to use pure time-series methods to identify the impacts of safe haven demand on asset prices, in the face of confounding effects from a wide range of alternative drivers. We...

This paper provides new indices of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on...

The structure of this paper is as follows. in section 1, I describe the welfare gain function. In section 2, I use stock returns for the G-7 countries to examine stock returns using standard mean- variance analysis. In section 3, I develop a single general equilibrium framework for examining...

The potential negative consequences of high financial volatility have been an important concern recently. Although its empirical relevance has not been proved conclusively, clear theoretic and intuitive arguments justify this concern. Many efforts have been conducted, therefore, to determine...

The potential negative consequences of high financial volatility have been an important concern recently. Although its empirical relevance has not been proved conclusively, clear theoretic and intuitive arguments justify this concern. Many efforts have been conducted, therefore, to determine...

This paper estimates a bivariate HEAVY system including daily and intra-daily volatility equations and its macro-augmented asymmetric power extension. It focuses on economic factors that exacerbate stock market volatility and represent major threats to financial stability. In particular, it...

This paper provides new indices of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on...

This paper estimates a bivariate HEAVY system including daily and intra-daily volatility equations and its macro-augmented asymmetric power extension. It focuses on economic factors that exacerbate stock market volatility and represent major threats to financial stability. In particular, it...

We jointly investigate time-varying comovements between stock returns across countries and between long-term government bond and stock returns within countries. Our focus is on how daily return comovements vary with stock uncertainty, as measured by the implied volatility (IV) from equity index...