The 1990s have posed a major challenge in terms of the predictive role of the term spread. The results from a typical indicator model suggested an average GDP growth rate substantially higher than the one we observed over the 1992-98 period. In this paper, the authors propose and empirically...

This paper examines the capacity of a variety of macroeconomic indicators to forecast a one-quarter decline in Canadian real GDP using a standard probit model. We find the U.S NAPM overall index to be the best single coincident predictor of a one-quarter decline in Canadian real GDP followed...

The use of information and communication technologies and investment in education and training are widely believed to play an important role in productivity growth at the aggregate level. However, a lack of micro-level data with information on firms and their workforce has limited the extent to...

This paper presents a new general equilibrium model, CIGMa (Canadian Intertemporal General equilibrium Model) designed to analyse the economic impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement measures in Canada. We use the model to examine the so-called ‘reference policy package’ devised by the...