Medium-term (five-year) fiscal planning is complicated by uncertainty surrounding projections of real GDP. The slowdown in growth rate in the late 1970s and the recent upsurge in growth during the late 1990s provide lessons on how unanticipated movements in underlying trends can have a major...

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we introduce the importance of utilising real-time data for macroeconomic analysis by reviewing the relevant literature on real-time analysis and by looking at real-time output data sets for Canada and the US. Although the use of real-time data has...

A good understanding of the theories of the interest rate term structure is important when elaborating a debt management strategy and, in particular, when choosing the maturity structure of the public debt. “Best practises” of debt management suggest the use of modern theories of the term...

New Growth Theory points to three potential influences on output and productivity growth – investment in human capital, R&D, and investment in machinery and equipment (M&E). However, much of the literature focuses on human capital and R&D as sources of growth. Few efforts have been made to...

This study continues the works of Gaudreault (2002) but on a regional dimension. We first build two distinct Canadian regions based on the provinces that are net producers or net importers of crude oil. Thus, variables of economic activity of the East region (Ontario through Newfoundland) and...

Recently, stochastic simulation models have been used to analyse issues related to federal fiscal policy in Canada. These models capture the uncertainty inherent in the economy and in the budget process by providing a range of possible outcomes, along with probabilities of achieving desired...